Prediction of Land Cover and Land Surface Temperature in Kuta Selatan Sub-district, Bali Province

Abstract

Kuta Selatan Sub-district has experienced changes in land cover due to the development of urbanization in recent years. One of the main problems caused by the progress of this development is the Land Surface Temperature (LST), which can cause several issues such as adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts on the urban population. This study provides information for the future urban developer by considering the implications of future temperature growth for city dwellers' thermal comfort, which should assist in developing and implementing management strategies to reduce the effects of urban heat. We used Landsat 7 ETM + and Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS as data sources for spatial-temporal analysis of land cover and LST in Kuta Selatan Sub-district for 2006, 2015, 2020 and their predictions in 2033 using the CA-Markov model. The results showed that the built-up area and LST in 2033 experienced a significant increase in space and distribution in Jimbaran, Benoa, Tanjung Benoa, and the mean LST in Kuta Selatan Sub-district would increase, from 25.63°C in 2006 to 33.07°C in 2033. Built-up areas and bare soil produce higher LST than vegetation and water bodies. Thus, vegetation and water bodies play an essential role in LST mitigation. Based on these results, in the future, LST in Kuta Selatan Sub-district will be warmer compared to the present.