Abstract
Abstract. We determine the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms of cosmic ray (CR) long-term variation, depending on particle energy, the level of solar activity (SA) and general solar magnetic field. This important information we obtain on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection-diffusion and drift global modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and the predictions which are regularly published elsewhere of expected SA variation in the near future and prediction of next future SA cycle, we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. We show that by this method we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future (up to 10-12 years, and may be more, in dependence for what period can be made definite prediction of SA) galactic cosmic ray intensity variation in the interplanetary space on different distances from the Sun, in the Earth's magnetosphere, and in the atmosphere at different altitudes and latitudes.
Highlights
According to Dorman et al (2001), the expected value of the natural logarithm of cosmic ray (CR) intensity global modulation at the Earth’s orbit, taking into account the time lag in the Helio
We suppose that the observed long-term cosmic ray modulation is caused by two processes: the convection-diffusion mechanism (e.g. Dorman, 1959; Parker, 1963; Dorman, 1965), which does not depend on the sign of the solar magnetic field, and the drift mechanism
It can be seen fro0m Fig0..51 tha1t in bo1.t5h app2roach2e.5s drif3t effec3.t5sAdinr, %e4ven cycles lead to a dCYe1c9rease inCYt2h0e timeClYa2g1 and inCYo2d2 d cycles to an increase in the time lag in comparison with that expected in convection-diffusion moduFilga. 3t.ion
Summary
According to Dorman et al (2001), the expected value of the natural logarithm of CR intensity global modulation at the Earth’s orbit, taking into account the time lag in the Helio-. X=r u, XE=1 AU u, Xo=ro u, and n (R, Xo, β, rE, t)exp is the expected galactic CR density at the Earth’s orbit, in dependence of the values of the parameters Xo and β. In Dorman et al (1997a,b) three values of β=0, 0.5, 1, have been considered; it was shown that β=1 strongly contradicts the CR and SA observation data, and that β=0 is the most reliable value. We will only consider here this value
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