Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of their contribution in expected global climate change

Abstract

On the basis of results obtained in our paper [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], we determine: the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection–diffusion; drift mechanisms of long-term variations of cosmic ray (CR) dependence on particle energy; level of solar activity (SA); and generally, the solar magnetic field. We obtain this important information on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection–diffusion and global drift modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and other regularly published predictions of expected SA variation in the near future, as well as predictions of the next SA cycle, we may make predictions of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years). In [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], properties of connections between long-term variation in CR intensity and some part of a global climate change were estimated, controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that in this way we may make predictions of some part of a global climate change expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years and maybe more, depending upon the period during which definite predictions of SA can be made), controlled by solar activity through CR. In this case, estimations of expected long-term changes in the planetary distribution of cutoff rigidities, which also influence CR intensity, as well as CR-influenced effects on global climate variation, become important.