Abstract
The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.
Highlights
The animals, in general, are adaptable, able to maintain the life and performance in a wide range of physical, chemical, biological and social environments (BERTIPAGLIA et al, 2007)
A fuzzy model was elaborated based on experimental data arising from field collection in which it was sought to verify the influence of the environment on the occupancy rate of stalls for dairy cows in free-stall facility
When we separately evaluate the influence of each variable on the model, it is observed that Tdb has the greatest effect on the occupancy rate (OR), because when this variable has high values it does not depend on the variation of Twb and Tbg, its values of OR remain constant (Figure 4a and 4b)
Summary
The animals, in general, are adaptable, able to maintain the life and performance in a wide range of physical, chemical, biological and social environments (BERTIPAGLIA et al, 2007). A major problem for the cattle industry, especially for dairy cattle, lies in the dissipation of body heat to the environment (ALMEIDA et al, 2010). High temperatures, when associated with high relative humidity in confinement sheds especially when designed improperly, further contribute to the low performance of dairy cattle under heat stress conditions (FARIA et al, 2008). For maximum profitability in the production of dairy cattle, a good productive and reproductive performance of the cattle is necessary. Environmental factors, in different circumstances, may affect milk production and fertility of animals, compromising the profitability of the activity (FERRO et al, 2010)
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