Prediction of extreme rain in Kototabang using Himawari-8 satellite based on differences in cloud brightness temperature

Abstract

The accurate prediction of extreme rain events is essential for the management and mitigation of hydrometeorological disasters. The Himawari-8 satellite provides cloud observations that can accurately forecast short-term extreme rain events using the Brightness Temperature (BT) data and Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) method. The statistical evaluation of this method was conducted using optical rain gauge data taken from Kototabang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (100.32° E, 0.20° S) to determine the best threshold for detecting extreme rain. We used three bands, bands 11 (B11), 13 (B13) and 15 (B15) and tested three combinations of BTDs from these bands, namely BTD1 (B11-B13), BTD2 (B13-B15), and BTD3 (BTD1-BTD2). This study emphasizes the importance of parameter selection in extreme rain identification and forecasting using cloud BT and BTD methods. Effective parameter optimization is essential for adapting these approaches to different rainfall intensities, therefore selecting appropriate thresholds is necessary. The research particularly highlights the impact of temperature and rainfall intensity on BT accuracy, with BT excelling at 250 K for light rain but showing reduced accuracy as rainfall intensity increases. BTD1 demonstrates improved accuracy with higher rainfall intensity, especially at a 3 K threshold, allowing for predictions of extreme rain events with a 10–20 min lead time. However, the limitation of this threshold is shown by consistent critical success index (CSI). Therefore, BTD1 with threshold 0 K give better performances with good accuracy, CSI and false alarm ratio (FAR) for various rain intensities. BTD2 shows improved accuracy at lower thresholds with reduced rainfall intensity and at the 3 K threshold, offering potential for extreme rainfall anticipation, but with declining CSI as rainfall intensity rises. The 0 K threshold, despite high probability of detection (POD), yields increased FAR in moderate to severe rainfall scenarios. BTD3 generally exhibits increased accuracy and CSI with rising rainfall intensity, except at the −3 K threshold, with the 0 K threshold standing out as the optimal choice, providing a 10–20 min lead time for intense rain predictions. This study shows that the selection of the appropriate BT and BTD techniques, and parameter values should align with specific rainfall levels and forecasting goals.