Application of SpectralWeather to prediction of flood and extreme rain events in the Maritime Continent

Abstract

<p>Monitoring of equatorial wave activity and understanding their nature is of high priority for scientists, weather forecasters and policy makers because these waves and their interactions can serve as precursors for weather-driven natural hazards, such as extreme rain and flood events. We studied such precursors of the January 2019 heavy rain and deadly flood in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system. The latest developed over the Java Sea and propagated onshore, resulting in extreme rain and devastating flood. </p><p>For the analysis of the January 2019 flood, we explored large datasets and detected interesting features to find multivariate relationships through visualization. We used SpectralWeather – a new tool supporting tropical weather training, research and forecasting, easily accessible at https://www.spectralweather.com. Extending Cameron Beccario's earth.nullschool.net project, SpectralWeather focuses on spectral decomposition of meteorological and oceanic fields into equatorial waves – CCKW, MJO, CCERW and Mixed Rossby-Gravity waves. SpectralWeather uses ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at several levels, NASA GPM rainfall datasets, OMI OLR index, NEMO SST, AVISO sea surface height, and OSCAR currents.</p><p>This new visualization tool can help to quantify and understand factors triggering natural hazards in the global tropics. We will discuss its interface and available features, based on the example of the January 2019 Sulawesi flood and other flood and extreme rain events in the Maritime Continent.   </p>