Prediction of Covid-19 Outbreak in India by Employing Epidemiological Models

Sudheer Reddy K,Mamatha K,Anji Reddy V,Santhosh Kumar C

doi:10.3844/jcssp.2020.886.890

Sudheer Reddy K, Mamatha K + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3844/jcssp.2020.886.890

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Abstract

The novel Corona virus (Covid-19) pandemic has frightened an unprecedented challenge to continents The Covid-19 pandemic is a highly contagious viral disease that has been progressing across the globe The global thought leaders, doctors, scientists and other intellects have enforced the lockdown to reduce the spread of the pandemic The objective is to study the impact of lockdown and to compare its effects from an epidemiological standpoint Authors employed Exponential and SIR (Susceptible, Infected and Removed) epidemiological models for study and analysis The study reveals that India will enter equilibrium by the end of June with a prediction of 135,000 cases approximately © 2020 Science Publications

Highlights

The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) titled the virus as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (Healthline, 2020; He et al, 2020)
In India, the first COVID-19 positive case reported on 30th January 2020, soon after, it spreads across the nation (India Press Release, 2020)
The authors of this paper introduced the popular epidemiological models for predicting the outbreak

Summary

Introduction

The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) titled the virus as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (Healthline, 2020; He et al, 2020). As of 30th April 2020, over 3.5 million positive cases of Covid-19 and about over 200,000 deaths recorded globally. About 60% of the population across the globe is locked down to prevent the spread of theCovid-19. The characteristic features of COVID-19 are presented in (Singhal, 2020; Zunyou and McGoogan, 2020). In India, the first COVID-19 positive case reported on 30th January 2020, soon after, it spreads across the nation (India Press Release, 2020). The percentage of cases and deaths is found to be lower as compared with other nations.

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