Prediction and forecast for COVID-19 Outbreak in India based on Enhanced Epidemiological Models

Abstract

This paper has analyzed the COVID-19 outbreak in India. This Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) also known Novel Coronavirus or COVID-19 is an infectious and contagious viral Respiratory disease that will analyze the magnitude of outbreak in India and future projections of the same. In China, where the outbreak first started, the basic reproduction number, R0 is found to be lying between 2-2.5, varying across regions. In India, there have been a total of 70767 confirmed cases of people infected with this disease as reported by the Government of India up to 11 May 2020. In this work, the difference between number of actual reported confirmed cases and approximate number of actual cases, due to insufficient number of tests being conducted, is highlighted based on a unique approximate mathematical formula, thereby establishing relationship between Death Count due to disease and number of people infected with it. Further, utilizing ICMR's available data about COVID-19 patients in India and employing an Enhanced Version of SIR Epidemic Model also known as SIRD devised by generating optimal parameter values and taking number of deaths due to pandemic into account, the time dependence of Outbreak's Intensity in India forecasting maximum number of confirmed active cases of COVID-19 present in a day (Peak Value) and also predicting total number of deaths in India due to the outbreak.