Prediction of CORS Water Vapor Values Based on the CEEMDAN and ARIMA-LSTM Combination Model

Abstract

By relying on the advantages of a uniform site distribution and continuous observation of the Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) system, real-time high-precision Global Navigation Satellite System/Precipitable Water Vapor (GNSS/PWV) data interpretation can be carried out to achieve accurate monitoring of regional water vapor changes. The study of the atmospheric water vapor content and distribution changes is the basis for the realization of rainfall forecasting and water vapor circulation research. Such research can provide data support for the effective forecasting of regional precipitation in megacities and the construction of a more sensitive flood prevention and warning system. Nowadays, a single model is often adopted for GNSS/PWV time series. This makes it challenging to match the high randomness characteristic of water vapor change. This study proposes a hybrid model that takes into account the linear and nonlinear aspects of water vapor data by using complete empirical mode decomposition (CEEMDAN) of adaptive noise, differential autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and the long-short-term memory network (LSTM). The CEEMDAN is used to decompose the water vapor data series. Then, the high- and low-frequency data are modeled separately, reducing the sequence’s complexity and non-stationarity. In selecting the prediction model, we use the ARIMA model for the high-frequency series and the ARIMA–GWO–LSTM ensemble model for the low-frequency sub-series and residual series. The model is verified using GNSS/PWV time series data collected at the Hong Kong CORS station in July 2021. The results show the following: (1) The LSTM model optimized by the grey wolf optimization algorithm (GWO) is comparable with the single LSTM model in the low-frequency sequence prediction process, and the error items are reduced by 30% after calculation. (2) During the process from CEEMDAN decomposition to the use of the combination model for prediction, the accuracy evaluation indexes of the station increase by more than 20%. The interpolation method can accurately determine the regional water vapor spatial variation, which is of practical significance for local rainfall forecasting. High-frequency data obtained by CEEMDAN decomposition demonstrate the dramatic changes in water vapor before and after the rainfall, which can provide ideas for improving the accuracy of rainfall forecasting.