Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk Using Genetic and Phenotypic Variables.

Abstract

Coronary artery disease (CAD) has the highest disease burden worldwide. To manage this burden, predictive models are required to screen patients for preventative treatment. A range of variables have been explored for their capacity to predict disease, including phenotypic (age, sex, BMI and smoking status), medical imaging (carotid artery thickness) and genotypic. We use a machine learning models and the UK Biobank cohort to measure the prediction capacity of these 3 variable categories, both in combination and isolation. We demonstrate that phenotypic variables from the Framingham risk score have the best prediction capacity, although a combination of phenotypic, medical imaging and genotypic variables deliver the most specific models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that Variant Spark, a random forest based GWAS platform, performs effective feature selection for SNP-based genotype variables, identifying 115 significantly associated SNPs to the CAD phenotype.