Prediction of Changes in the Exchange Rate between the USD and the CNY and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Abstract

As one of the important indicators of the global financial market, the fluctuation of the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate not only directly affects the economic development of China and the United States, but also has important significance for analyzing the global economic situation. Analyzing the factors influencing the exchange rate between the United States dollar (USD) and the Chinese yuan (CNY) is one of the key research topics today. Researchers have found that exchange rates are influenced by factors such as national policies and the global political situation. However, there is still a certain gap in the comprehensive and objective analysis of these influencing factors. Therefore, the research topic of this article is to predict the trend of the exchange rate between the USD and the CNY and analyze the influencing factors. This study collected exchange rate data from January 2000 to November 2023 and used the ARIMA model to predict exchange rate changes. This study explores the trend of exchange rate changes by visualizing these data. Research has found that significant changes in exchange rates over the past two decades have also occurred during times of global instability and policy adjustments. The economic development level of China and the United States also directly affects the changes in exchange rates. In addition, the model used in this study also predicted the exchange rate between the USD and the CNY in 2024, providing a scientific direction for predicting the economic development trend in 2024.