Prediction of Carbon Emission Trends in High Density Communities in Shanghai Driven by Policies

Abstract

As a typical community type in Shanghai, the carbon emissions of high-density communities exceed one-third of the total carbon emissions during the operational phase of urban buildings. Under existing policy conditions, the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction in these communities is related to whether the city can achieve its carbon neutrality goals. This study first selected typical high-density communities as research objects, then conducted an inventory of carbon emissions in the selected communities. Based on this data, two scenarios were set: the existing policy scenario and the Enhanced measures scenario, to predict the future carbon emission trends of high-density communities in Shanghai. The predicted results will be compared with the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets in Shanghai and the whole country to determine whether the community can achieve the goals in different scenarios. The main conclusions of the study include: (1) According to the results of the carbon inventory, the main sources of carbon emissions in high-density communities are electricity, natural gas, household waste disposal, and gasoline-powered vehicles, and the carbon reduction from greening carbon sinks and renewable energy is limited. Besides that, the average carbon emissions per household in high-end commercial communities are more than twice that of ordinary communities. (2) Based on existing policies, the carbon peak of high-density communities in Shanghai is estimated to occur around 2033-2035, later than the national and Shanghai peak times, and it is unlikely to achieve the carbon neutrality goal by 2060. (3) If Enhanced measures are taken from the perspectives of low-carbon technology and low-carbon living, high-density communities in Shanghai can achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions around 2025, and achieve carbon neutrality at the societal level before 2060, however, achieving zero carbon at the community level is not feasible.