Medium and Long Term Carbon Emissions and Carbon Neutrality Scenarios Forecast of Fujian Province

Abstract

Fujian Province is the first ecological civilization province in China. In order to research and judge the development trend of medium and long term carbon emissions in the province and deploy medium and long term emission reduction measures after the carbon peak in advance, it is necessary to analyze the province’s medium and long term carbon emissions under different scenarios. This paper uses the EKC-STIRPAT model and the scenario analysis method to construct three scenarios of baseline, accelerating transformation and deep optimization scenarios, then uses the trend extrapolation method to further extend the carbon emission of Fujian Province trajectory forecast to 2070. Further considering the development trend of carbon removal capacity in the medium and long term, it is expected that Fujian Province will achieve carbon neutrality in 2063, 2057 and 2054 under the baseline, accelerating transition and deep optimization scenarios, respectively. If the ocean carbon sink and soil carbon sink are further considered, the carbon neutralization time of Fujian Province will be advanced to 2053, 2049 and 2046 in the three scenarios, respectively. In the next stage, Fujian Province needs to take more measures to remove carbon and increase carbon sinks, and at the same time fully tap the carbon sink resources in the ocean and other fields to ensure that the carbon neutrality goal is achieved as scheduled.