Prediction Model of Success and Failure in Football Competitions

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify the factors which determine the winning and losing of football match. The sample used corresponded to 280 games from the 2019-2020 to 2020-21 season of the Hero Indian Super league (ISL) football tournament. The game related statistics gathered were: total number of passes, successful passes, shot on target, fouls, crosses, red card, offside, shot off target, touches, intercepts, corners and yellow cards. The data were analyzed using Binary Logistic Regression (Forward: LR Method) with the result of the game as the dependent variable and predictor variables as covariates. β, standard error β, Wald’s χ2, odds ratio with 95% confidence interval were calculated. Model evaluation was conducted using the likelihood ratio test, Cox & Snell (R2), and Nagelkerke (R2) tests. The goodness of fit test for the models was conducted using the Hosmer & Lemeshow test. The analysis revealed five factors were related to winning in football competition. The study shows that there is a significant association of important factors with respect to winning a match in a professional football championship. The coaches and players can take note of the important factors responsible for winning in the football championship.