Prediction Model for Covid-19 Cases in Indonesia Using Linear Regression and Polynomial Regression Methods

Abstract

The World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) a pandemic. Covid-19 is a disease caused by a new type of coronavirus, namely Sars-CoV-2, which affects the respiratory system. Until now, positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia are still occurring every day. This study aims to predict the addition of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia. The data is sourced from the public API page covid19.go.id in the form of an additional number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by 122 lines of data. Predictions are made using linear regression and polynomial regression methods as comparisons. Evaluation of the linear regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.57, while the polynomial regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.84. Based on these evaluations, the polynomial regression method yields better results than the linear regression method. The prediction of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia from January to March 2022 using the polynomial regression methods predicts that the addition of Covid-19 cases will rise again.