Prediction Method for RUL of Underwater Self-Enhancement Structure: Subsea Christmas Tree High-Pressure Valve Actuator as a Case Study

Abstract

Underwater pressure-bearing structures are produced in practice by means of pressure self-enhancement methods in order to improve the stress distribution and enhance the pressure-bearing performance. On the other hand, the pairs equation shows that stress is an important factor influencing the degradation of the structure. In fact, improving the stress distribution will not only improve the pressure-bearing performance, but will have an impact on the life degradation trend. Thus, pressure self-enhancement affects the structural life by changing the stress distribution. With this in mind, this paper considers the effect of pressure self-enhancement on the service time of subsea structures, and a Bayesian network (BN)-based method that can be used to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of underwater self-enhanced structures is proposed. The method also takes into account the influence of multiple sources of structural factors in order to predict the RUL of the structure more accurately. The life degradation process of an all-electric Christmas tree valve actuator is used as a case study. The prediction results are compared with data in the literature to verify the validity of the method. The results have implications for guidance on the O&M assurance of underwater production systems.