Prediction and Scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions Peak of Resource-Based Urban Agglomeration with Industrial Clusters—Case of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Abstract

China has implemented a “dual-carbon” policy in response to the Paris Agreement’s global climate change objectives. Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos (HBO-UA) is a resource-based urban agglomeration that is noteworthy for having significant heavy industry in China. Based on the extended STRIPAT model, which broadens the study indicators into six aspects—population, economics, technology, urbanization, industrial energy, and industrial structure—this paper develops a research framework of “Driving–Predicting–Simulating” for carbon emissions. According to the “one formula for one city” principle, driver models were constructed for Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos, respectively. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Population and urbanization are the dominant factors of carbon emissions in HBO-UA, following the economy and industrial energy. (2) Carbon emissions are multifactor-driven in Hohhot, double-factor-driven in Baotou, and single-factor-driven in Ordos. (3) Hohhot can achieve its carbon emissions peak under more efficient and lower policy costs, while Ordo is under great pressure to reduce carbon emissions. (4) We suggest multiple strategies to accomplish the “dual-carbon” goals for resource-based urban agglomeration with industrial clusters. These strategies include fostering diversified consumption by continuously enhancing urban functions, directing the transformation of the industrial structure, and fostering the growth of emerging industries.