Prediction and Analysis of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone, China

Abstract

Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) is an important factor of global change. In this study, the LUCC of Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone, the typical area of urbanization in China, was simulated by applying CLUE-S model under the historical trend scenario and policy scenario two scenarios. Transfer matrix and landscape index were also applied to analyze the change of landscape pattern. The results show that, from 1988 to 2007, the area of construction land was considerably increased. However, the area of forest, water and farmland were greatly decreased. The results were mainly caused by the rapid growth of economic, population and accelerated urbanization. These changes have caused landscape fragmentation in this study area. In general, the trends of landscape changes under two scenarios were unsustainable in this area.