Abstract
The outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan has significantly impacted the economy and society globally. Countries are in a strict state of prevention and control of this pandemic. In this study, the development trend analysis of the cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative deaths, and cumulative cured cases was conducted based on data from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China from January 23, 2020 to April 6, 2020 using an Elman neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), and support vector machine (SVM). A SVM with fuzzy granulation was used to predict the growth range of confirmed new cases, new deaths, and new cured cases. The experimental results showed that the Elman neural network and SVM used in this study can predict the development trend of cumulative confirmed cases, deaths, and cured cases, whereas LSTM is more suitable for the prediction of the cumulative confirmed cases. The SVM with fuzzy granulation can successfully predict the growth range of confirmed new cases and new cured cases, although the average predicted values are slightly large. Currently, the United States is the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also used data modeling from the United States to further verify the validity of the proposed models.
Highlights
Infectious diseases are caused by various pathogens that can be transmitted from person to person, animal to animal, or person to animal
The experimental results showed that the Elman neural network and support vector machine (SVM) used in this study can predict the development trend of cumulative confirmed cases, deaths, and cured cases, whereas long short-term memory (LSTM) is more suitable for the prediction of the cumulative confirmed cases
Data Availability Statement: The data underlying the results presented in the study are available from http://wjw.wh.gov.cn/ and https://www.who. int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/ situation-reports, and are provided in the Supporting Information files
Summary
Infectious diseases are caused by various pathogens that can be transmitted from person to person, animal to animal, or person to animal. They can be transmitted in various ways, and the speed of transmission is fast. The remaining six species are human coronavirus (HCoV)-229E, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV. COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which broke out in 2003, are both caused by coronaviruses. Their clinical symptoms are similar but not identical
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