PredictingAmbystoma ordinariumHabitat in Central Mexico Using Species Distribution Models

Abstract

Abstract Amphibian diversity in Neotropical mountains habitats is at risk, particularly those species associated with stream habitats at altitudes >500 m above sea level (a.s.l.). This pertains especially to the amphibian diversity of Mexico, where the number of species is high on the central and southwestern highlands. In the present study, we predicted the potential distribution of Ambystoma ordinarium using a Geographic Information System modeling approach. We used survey data from 2013 to 2015 and historical data reported in databases and literature, and employed environmental variables from the WorldClim–Global Climate Data Project. Our results indicate that a single factor, Mean Diurnal Range, contributed most to the model, followed by other factors (Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month and Precipitation of the Driest Month). The conservative predicted distribution was 5256 km2, especially in areas have dynamic aquatic ecosystems (e.g., small streams). The highest probability of occurrence of th...