Changes in the Potential Habitat Distribution of Typical Fire-Resistant Forest Species under Climate Change in the Subtropical Regions of China

Abstract

Ecological fire prevention forest belts can effectively alleviate the spread of forest fires and reduce the harm caused by forest fires. Exploring the distribution and changes in suitable growth areas for fire-resistant forest species under the effects of climate change can provide effective references for the introduction of ecological fire prevention and tree species preservation in the region. This study is based on the distribution data of six typical ecological fire prevention forest species in the subtropical regions of China. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), optimized by the ENMeval data package, was used to analyze the potential relationship between the ecological environment variables and fire prevention forest species. The potential distribution of certain tree species in the historical period and in future periods is simulated. In addition, the area changes, migration trends, and stable areas of tree species under climate change are also discussed. The research results indicated the following: (1) The AUC values of the optimized model are all higher than 0.9, indicating the optimal prediction results. (2) The climate variables that have the greatest impact on the suitable habitat of Schima superba were the annual mean temperature, precipitation of the driest month, and mean diurnal range. Quercus glauca was mainly influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the precipitation of the warmest quarter. Castanopsis eyrei was mainly influenced by the precipitation of the driest month and the annual precipitation. The distribution of suitable growth areas for Symplocos sumuntia is mainly influenced by the precipitation of the driest month. The distribution of Camellia oleifera was influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The potential habitat distribution of Photinia serratifolia was greatly influenced by annual precipitation. (3) Until 2090, the expansion degree of the suitable growth area will be Symplocos sumuntia (51.05%) > Schima superba (19.41%) > Camellia oleifera (10.14%) > Quercus glauca (6.80%) > Castanopsis eyrei (2.34%) > Photinia serratifolia (−6.97%). (4) The centroid of Schima superba will migrate northward. Quercus glauca will migrate northeast. The suitable areas for the migration of Symplocos sumuntia and Castanopsis eyrei will move in a northwest direction, with repeated changes in alum migration, as well as with the largest migration span for Castanopsis eyrei. In addition, Camellia oleifera will move southwest. The centroid of Photinia serratifolia will migrate to the southeast. (5) The six fire-resistant tree species in this study were noted to have excellent stability in Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. This conclusion can provide an effective reference for the introduction of ecological fire prevention tree species and the protection of tree species under climate change in subtropical forest-fire-prone areas in China.