Abstract
This study focused on the prediction of land-use changes in Nakhon Ratchasima city using a CA-Markov Model with GIS. Satellite images taken by Landsat-5 (1992), Landsat-7 (2002) and THEOS (2016) were used to predict land use in 2026. In 1992, the most proportion of land usage was built-up areas (47.76%) and followed by green areas (37.45%), bare lands (13.19%), and water bodies (1.60%), respectively. In 2002, the land use comprised built-up areas (56.04%), green areas (35.52%), bare lands (4.80%) and water bodies (3.63%). By 2016, urbanisation had changed the land use pattern, which comprised built-up areas (70.80%), green areas (20.78%), bare lands (6.37%), and water bodies (2.03%). The data were analysed using a change detection matrix and revealed an increase in built-up area at the expense of all other types, especially green areas. The results were in accordance with the prediction model created in two scenarios. Scenario 1 assumed city expansion following past trends, built-up areas (85.88%), green areas (11.67%), bare lands (2.15%), and water bodies (0.30%). Scenario 2 assumed city expansion in accordance with the national strategy, built-up areas (74.91%), green areas (15.77%), bare lands (8.48%), and water bodies (0.84%). The results indicated an expansion of built-up areas and a shrinking of green areas. In Scenario 2, urban expansion was less than in Scenario 1, and preserving the green area seemed more feasible due to governmental restrictions. The results indicated that planning the urbanisation according to the policies development plans, especially in specific areas, contributed to a more efficient urbanisation growth. The city should provide to promote the use of floor area ratio (FAR) and open space ratio (OSR) with urban planning measures as well as increasing the green areas.
Highlights
Land-use change affects the environment on a global scale [1,2,3]
The city should provide to promote the use of floor area ratio (FAR) and open space ratio (OSR) with urban planning measures as well as increasing the green areas
In Scenario 1 (Table 7), extrapolated from past trends, urban expansion in Nakhon Ratchasima, the analysis revealed that the city’s built-up areas would reach 31.63 sq km (85.88% of the total area), its green areas would occupy 11.67% (4.29 sq km), the bare lands would take up 2.15% (0.80 sq km) and it was 0.30% (0.11 sq km) for the water bodies
Summary
Land-use change affects the environment on a global scale [1,2,3]. The effects of urbanisation are apparent both on land and water [4] leading to erosion and sediments [5] deforestation and elevated greenhouse gas emissions [6]. Urban expansion results from a need to accommodate a growing population and economic development [8,9,10,11] and is growing constantly [12]. Indicates that approximately 50% of the world’s population live in urban areas and predicts that this proportion will reach 60% by 2030. Two-thirds of the future population will be living in developing countries [14]. Problems caused by the future land-use change are being investigated, along with efforts to mitigate the impacts. These efforts included preventing urban sprawl and changing urban land use to protect citizens from environmentally related health problems
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