Predicting the unpredictable: future directions in internetworking and their implications

Abstract

The author explores the likely networking technologies to mature over the next decade, and the implications on other fields of information systems and society. He has chosen to restrict himself to the decade timescale since predicting beyond that time frame is likely to be writing science fiction. This article addresses two major themes. The first explores at the 10,000-foot level the major technology changes one expects to bear fruit over the next decade; the second explores the implications of these changes on our society. Since the time the talk on which this article is based was given, the world has changed. The need for security and robustness of our electronic infrastructure has dramatically increased, and our understanding of how to do this unfortunately has not kept up with the need. In many countries, there is an increasing strain between the privacy desires of citizens and the desire for safety. In many industries, such as music and motion pictures, the rapid expansion of digital content and the ease of distribution of that content has created demands for increased protection, much of which must be implemented in computer hardware and networking protocols. How this will impact the perceived right of the public to fair use of that material is a battle being fought in the legislature and the courts. First he explores the technological directions of the next decade.