Predicting the trend of the stock based on the intrinsic value and trading volume of stock

Abstract

Based on the MDH theory, a new deterministic delay difference system is proposed combined with a deterministic delay difference model which is suggested by Jan Melecky for time series of closing stock price and intrinsic value of the stock. The merit is that describing the trend of the stock's closing price from intrinsic value and volume of the stock. Therefore, it avoids the non-measurability of other state variables and has more advantages to the application in practical stock market. Based on that, the root of this system is discussed, determination of the intrinsic value of the stock and selection range of some parameters are showed, besides, the system is stably analyzed and the results of numerical simulation shows that trading volume contains the valuable information of the absolute change in future price in conjunction with the data of the Shanghai A shares