Abstract
Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012) are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS) Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89%) of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30%) relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.
Highlights
The purpose of this study is to quantify the ability of the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA)/National Weather Service (NWS) Sea Lakes and Overland Surges fromHurricanes (SLOSH) storm surge prediction model [1] to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the storm tide that occurred along the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane (―Superstorm‖)Sandy (2012)
In the case of the surge-plus-tides simulations, the water levels above ground level (AGL) are lower since the cells that would be wetted by the tides alone at any time during the model simulation are not considered inundated in the results
The verification analyses conducted in this study show that the NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) storm surge prediction model is able to simulate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a high degree of fidelity
Summary
The purpose of this study is to quantify the ability of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric. An anomalous blocking high over the North Atlantic prevented Sandy from moving out to sea, while a baroclinic trough associated with an early winter storm deepened over the southeast US This accelerated the storm’s forward speed to 37 kph (20 kts) and steered it northwest, where it encountered cold water and transitioned to an extratropical cyclone 83 km (45 nm) southeast of Atlantic City, NJ [2], 2.5 h prior to its final landfall. The storm surge above astronomical tide produced by Hurricane Sandy reached its highest observed levels of 3.86 m (12.65 ft) at Kings Point at the western end of Long Island Sound. Buoy 44008, located 54 nm SE of Nantucket Shoals, a SWH of 10.97 m was registered
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