Predicting the risk of becoming eligible for the disability pension: Machine learning methods applied to French health data

Abstract

Benefiting from the disability pension implies morbid (physical and psychological) and social (fall in income) implications for the person. It also has economic consequences for society, with increasing expenses since 2011 (+4.9% on average per year). Investing in preventive actions against the loss of the ability to work should limit these consequences, but it requires targeting people at risk. The development of artificial intelligence opens up prospects in this regard. To target, using supervised machine learning methods, those people with a high probability of becoming eligible for the disability pension over the course of the year based on their socio-demographic and medical characteristics (pathologies, work stoppages, drugs taken, and medical procedures). Among the beneficiaries of the French public welfare system aged 20–64 in 2017, we compared the socio-demographic and medical characteristics between 2014 and 2016 of those who received a disability pension in 2017 and not before, and those who did not receive a disability pension from 2014 to 2017. The determination of the boundary between these two groups was tested using logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, naive Bayes classifiers, and support vector machines. The models’ performance was compared with respect to accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC (area under the curve). Finally, the predictive power of each factor was measured by AUC too. The boosted logistic regression had the best performance for three of the five criteria, but low sensitivity. The best sensitivity was obtained with the support vector machines, with an accuracy close to that of the boosted logistic regression, but a lower precision and specificity. Random forests offered the best discriminatory ability. The naive Bayes classifier had the worst performance. The most predictive factors in becoming eligible for the disability pension were having 30 days or more off sick in 2014, 2015, and 2016 and being aged 55 to 64. Supervised learning methods have appeared relevant for identifying people with the highest probability of becoming eligible for the disability pension and, more broadly, for steering public and social policies.