Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) under Near Current and Future Climatic Conditions, Using the Maximum Entropy Model.

Delong Ma,Qinfeng Zhang,Xinchang Lun,Jun Wang,Qiyong Liu,Chao Li,Ruobing Zhou,Zhe Zhao

doi:10.3390/biology10101057

Abstract

Simple SummaryAmblyomma americanum (the lone star tick) is a pathogen vector that bites humans. It can cause severe disease in humans and animals, and may spread as the climate changes. We used a maximum entropy model to predict that the global Amblyomma americanum risk area is 3.39 × 106 km2. Our work could help tailor related control strategies.Amblyomma americanum (the lone star tick) is a pathogen vector, mainly from eastern North America, that bites humans. With global integration and climate change, some ticks that are currently confined to a certain place may begin to spread out; some reports have shown that they are undergoing rapid range expansion. The difference in the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum under current and future climatic conditions is dependent on environment variables such as temperature and precipitation, which can affect their survival. In this study, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum. The MaxEnt model was calibrated at the native range of A. americanum using occurrence data and the current climatic conditions. Seven WorldClim climatic variables were selected by the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The best model was chosen based on the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The resulting model was then projected onto the global scale using the current and future climate conditions modeled under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Highlights

This study aimed to predict the potential global geographic distribution of A. americanum and the environment variables affecting the distribution area under near current and future climate scenarios using the maximum entropy model and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data, and to elucidate how this potential distribution of A. americanum could change under four climate change scenarios in the future
We used the Maxent model to predict the suitable areas for lone star ticks under current climatic conditions and future climatic conditions
Work on global economic and quarantine measures for Amblyomma americanum are urIn this study, we used the Maxent model to predict the suitable areas for lone star gent, due to the expansion of its potential distribution range, especially across Asia, North ticks under current climatic conditions and future climatic conditions

Summary

Introduction

In the USA, Amblyomma Americanum (the lone star tick) is considered to be one of the most aggressive ticks in public health and has veterinary importance [1]. It can be divided into four life stages: egg, larva, nymph and adult. All stages of the tick readily feed on people, companion animals, livestock and wildlife. Ticks can cause host blood loss, skin allergies and other symptoms when they attach to the human body and suck blood, and can transmit Francisella tularensis (the agent of tularemia), Ehrlicia chaffeensis (the causative agent of human monocytic ehrlichiosis), Ehrlichia ewingii (the agent of human granulocytic ehrlichiosis), Coxiella burnetiid (the agent of Q fever) [2,3,4,5,6] and Rickettsia amblyommatis [7,8]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion