Distribution and invasion risk assessment of Oryctes rhinoceros (L.) in China under changing climate

Abstract

AbstractOryctes rhinoceros (L.) is one of the most important pests of palm plants. It has expanded rapidly and posed a serious threat to related plants in recent years. To study the impact of climatic conditions on it and its distribution under current and future climatic conditions, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software were used for the first time to predict the potential distribution of O. rhinoceros in China under climate change in this work. The results showed that the distribution range of O. rhinoceros was 92.42–120.81°E, 17.07–37.10°N under current climatic conditions. The highly suitable area was 58,298.61 km2, which is equal to 0.61% of China's land area. The area of highly suitable areas increased by 5.48%–39.43% under different scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) in the future (2050s, 2090s) compared with the current distribution, which implied that the distribution of the pest will further expand. The precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), the minimum temperatures in November (tmin11), the minimum temperatures in July (tmin7) and the precipitation in September (prec9) were determined to be the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of O. rhinoceros. This work has important guiding significance for developing effective O. rhinoceros monitoring, prevention and control methods. We suggest that relevant departments take measures as soon as possible to control the spread of this pest.