Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered Parrotia subaequalis in China

Abstract

Climate change poses a serious threat to species, especially for endangered species. This is particularly true for the endangered tree Parrotia subaequalis, endemic to China. To date, little is known about its pattern of habitat distribution, and how it will respond under future climate change still remains unclear. Based on six climate variables and 115 occurrence records, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of P. subaequalis in China. The modeling results showed that the first three leading factors influencing its distribution were precipitation in the driest quarter (Bio17), the mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), and annual average temperature (Bio1). The actual distribution area of this endangered tree was smaller than the projected suitable range (2.325 × 104 km2), which was mainly concentrated in west and southeast Anhui, southwest Jiangsu, and northwest Zhejiang, eastern China. Our study also indicated that P. subaequalis populations in the three regions (Central-China Mountain Area (CC), Dabie Mountain Area (DB), and Tianmu Mountain Area (TM)) responded differently to future climate change. The DB population changed insignificantly in a suitable habitat, while the TM population increased slightly in area, migrating northeast on the whole. The habitats of the DB and TM populations became more fragmented under all future climate scenarios than those under the current condition. Due to geographical isolation and limited spread, it is plausible for P. subaequalis to grow in CC under current and future conditions. Accordingly, our findings highlighted that the two local populations of P. subaequalis presented different responses to climate change under global warming. Therefore, our study can improve the conservation and management of P. subaequalis in China and be helpful for other endangered tree species with local populations that respond differently to climate change.