Predicting the number of fruits and the seed biomass of Trichilia emetica (Vahl.) in the eastern coastal region of South Africa

Abstract

Trichilia emetica is a coastal fruit tree species from sub-Saharan Africa that has a potential for commercial harvest for its edible and useful seed oils. However, the prediction of its fruit and seed yields is necessary to plan a profitable harvest. This study aims to calibrate allometric equations that predict the amount of fruits and the biomass of seeds of T. emetica. A total of 35 trees were selected based on seven classes of the diameter at breast height (DBH) in the Umkhanyakude district. The trees were measured during fruit maturation period. The measurements included the DBH, the canopy diameter, and the total height. Fruits were counted on each tree using randomized branch sampling technique. Twelve fruits were harvested per tree and were brought to the laboratory for the determination of biomass. Six allometric models were identified and fitted to the data using ordinary least squares method. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to select the best-fit models. The results suggested that simple linear models, basing solely on DBH (in cm), were the best predictors of both the number of fruits on the trees (NF) and the fresh seed biomass (SB; in kg) of T. emetica. The exponential forms of the best-fit general models were: (1) NF = 375.364 × DBH1.009; and (2) SB = 1.858 × DBH1.009. The prediction tests of these models indicated that the errors were large when predicting the fruit number and the seed biomass of smaller trees (DBH ≤ 20 cm) and bigger trees (DBH ≥ 30 cm). For medium-size trees (20 cm < DBH < 30 cm), the error was small. On the other hand, tree size category models developed in this study improved statistically the accuracy of predictions. The findings recommend the use of the fitted tree size category equations.