Predicting the Habitat Suitability of Melaleuca cajuputi Based on the MaxEnt Species Distribution Model

Nor Zafirah Ab Lah,Shinya Numata,Zulkifli Yusop,Mazlan Hashim,Jamilah Mohd Salim

doi:10.3390/f12111449

Nor Zafirah Ab Lah, Shinya Numata + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/f12111449

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Abstract

Gelam tree or Melaleuca cajuputi (M. cajuputi) is an important species for the local economy as well as coastal ecosystem protection in Terengganu, Malaysia. This study aimed at producing a current habitat suitability map and predicting future potential habitat distribution for M. cajuputi in Terengganu based on Species distribution modeling (SDM) using the Maximum Entropy principle. Our modeling results show that for the current potential distribution of M. cajuputi species, only 10.82% (1346.5 km2) of Terengganu area is suitable habitat, which 0.96% of the areas are under high, 2.44% moderate and 7.42% poor habitat suitability. The model prediction for future projection shows that the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi would decrease significantly in the year 2050 under RCP 4.5 where the largest contraction from suitable to unsuitable habitat area is about 442.1 km2 and under RCP 2.6 is the highest expansion from unsuitable to suitable habitat area (267.5 km2). From the future habitat suitability projection, we found that the habitat suitability in Marang would degrade significantly under all climate scenarios, while in Setiu the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi remains stable throughout the climate change scenarios. The modeling prediction shows a significant influence on the soil properties, temperature, and precipitation during monsoon months. These results could benefit conservationist and policymakers for decision making. The present model could also give a perception into potential habitat suitability of M. cajuputi in the future and to improve our understanding of the species’ response under the changing climate.

Highlights

Global warming has caused significant changes in spatial and temporal environmental patterns, and these changes affect effort to conserve biodiversity [1]
We successfully modeled the habitat suitability of M. cajuputi under the current and future climate change scenarios
Our prediction showed that under the current climate, Setiu region shows a better M. cajuputi habitat suitability compared to Marang region in the long term

Summary

Introduction

Global warming has caused significant changes in spatial and temporal environmental patterns, and these changes affect effort to conserve biodiversity [1]. Changes in temperature and precipitation can affect species habitat and plant phenology, both directly and indirectly [2]. Climate change effect threatened Melaleuca swamp forest where the sea level rise causes saltwater intrusion and indirectly affects the Melaleuca swamp forest because of an increase in salinity [3]. The M. cajuputi forest is one of the crucial habitats of the wetlands’ ecosystem due to its function and characteristics that can withstand flooding and dry conditions. It was shown that the Melaleuca genus can tolerate various types of extreme conditions, whether in a wet, deep flooding area and dry land, but only some species of Melaleuca genus may adapt to increased inundation while others might not survive [8,9]. Finding out the responses between species and their environmental variables is crucial to predicting their habitat distribution

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