Abstract
In developing the U.S. 2017–2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) modeled lithium-ion battery packs for future electrified vehicles to estimate their direct manufacturing costs through 2025. As part of the 2016 Midterm Evaluation of the standards for model years (MY) 2022 to 2025, the analysis was revised to account for developments in battery design since the 2012 rulemaking. This paper describes the methodology that was used for estimating battery capacity, power, and cost, and compares the projected cost estimates to other sources. An empirical equation is derived for specifying motor power as a function of target acceleration time, and suggested factors for converting cell-level costs to pack-level costs are developed.
Highlights
The 2017–2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards [1] were finalized in 2012 and represent a significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) studied the incremental cost of many advanced automotive technologies, including plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), a category that includes battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
0–60 time as a function of the ratio of rated engine power to equivalent test weight (ETW). Because this relationship was derived from the behavior of internal combustion powertrains, we investigated its applicability to the torque-delivering behavior of electric drive by surveying the peak motor power ratings and acceleration performance of electrified vehicles present in the market between 2012 and 2017 and capable of pure electric 0–60 acceleration
Summary
The 2017–2025 Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards [1] were finalized in 2012 and represent a significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The rulemaking process included an accounting of the cost of meeting the standards. Because much of the cost of a PEV is in the cost of the battery, it was necessary to develop a robust and transparent methodology for projecting battery costs for these vehicles. Battery costs have many drivers, and regardless of the methodology, future projections are subject to uncertainty. It is, important to consider the methodology and assumptions when assessing the validity of cost projections as conditions evolve over time
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