Predicting the future land use and land cover changes for Bhavani basin, Tamil Nadu, India, using QGIS MOLUSCE plugin.

Manikandan Kamaraj,Sathyanathan Rangarajan

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-17904-6

Abstract

Human population growth, movement, and demand have a substantial impact on land use and land cover dynamics. Thematic maps of land use and land cover (LULC) serve as a reference for scrutinizing, source administration, and forecasting, making it easier to establish plans that balance preservation, competing uses, and growth compressions. This study aims to identify the changeover of land-use changes in the Bhavani basin for the two periods 2005 and 2015 and to forecast and establish potential land-use changes in the years 2025 and 2030 by using QGIS 2.18.24 version MOLUSCE plugin (MLP-ANN) model. The five criteria, such as DEM, slope, aspect, distance from the road, and distance from builtup, are used as spatial variable maps in the processes of learning in MLP-ANN to predict their influences on LULC between 2005 and 2010. It was found that DEM, distance from the road, and distance from the builtup have significant effects. The projected and accurate LULC maps for 2015 indicate a good level of accuracy, with an overall Kappa value of 0.69 and a percentage of the correctness of 76.28%. MLP-ANN is then used to forecast changes in LULC for the years 2025 and 2030, which shows a significant rise in cropland and builtup areas, by 20 km2 and 10 km2, respectively. The findings assist farmers and policymakers in developing optimal land use plans and better management techniques for the long-term development of natural resources.

Highlights

Biodiversity, distribution of water and radiation budgets, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon cycling, and livelihoods are all impacted by the land-use changes (LULC) around the world
Results and Discussion high values, which show no changes because they remain in the same category, the value in the table ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values signifying bigger changes
From the analysis it is learnt that when the area of one classification increases, it decreases the area of other classes and vice versa

Summary

Introduction

Biodiversity, distribution of water and radiation budgets, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon cycling, and livelihoods are all impacted by the land-use changes (LULC) around the world. On the other hand, refers to the amount of human activity that is directly tied to the land and the utilization of its resources (Ebenezer et al, 2018). LULC is gradually increased due to the following parameters interaction with climate, ecological processes, biogeochemical cycles, biodiversity, and human activities (Abdul Rahaman et al., 2017). The change in LULC of a region, especially the increase in built-up areas, alters hydrological processes such as runoff pattern, peak flow characteristics, water quality, and so on (Ashaolu et al, 2019a). Humans have influenced and altered ground cover, either directly or indirectly (Buğday and Erkan Buğday, 2019)

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Conclusion