Predicting the effects of macro-economic variables on timber harvest in small regions: Method and application

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of forecasting the timber harvest in a small region, given predicted changes for the economy of the country to which the region belongs. It suggests that time-series methods be used to model the feedback between local timber harvest and non-local (macro-economic) variables. These measures of feedback could then be supplemented with multiplier analysis to predict the long-term effect of each macro-economic variable of interest on local timber harvest. This method was applied to five counties of Southwestern Oregon, an area of some 3 m ha, 75% forested, to measure the effects of housing starts and lumber prices in the entire United States on private and public timber harvest in each county. Local public harvest was found to have short-term elasticities with respect to national housing starts of 0·48 (±0·18) to 0·78 (±0·19). The corresponding long-term elasticities ranged from 0·78 (±0·18) to 0·99 (±0·21). National lumber prices influenced local public harvest in the short-term only, with an elasticity of 1·34 (±0·36). Local private harvest was not influenced significantly by national housing starts, nor by prices.