Predicting the effects of climate and land use changes on small rattlesnakes in central Mexico: Insights for conservation planning

Abstract

Anthropogenic changes pose a significant threat to global biodiversity, especially in reptiles. Mexico, renowned for its diverse reptile population, is experiencing habitat disturbance and fragmentation, endangering rattlesnakes in particular due to their specific habitat requirements and limited mobility. The loss of structural connectivity further increases the risk of extinction for reptiles. Our study focuses on predicting the distribution and connectivity of nine Crotalus species in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), using environmental modeling. We used climate models (CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) for the year 2050 and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 85) alongside changes in vegetation cover and land use. The Maxent modeling method in ENMeval helped assess distribution patterns and to identify key environmental variables influencing these species’ distributions and niche overlap. We also conducted an analysis of the structural connectivity of the different Crotalus species. Our findings indicate reductions in suitable habitats due to changes in agriculture, urbanization, and forest cover. The Maxent models showed high accuracy in predicting species distributions. The most influential variables varied among species and included forest types and climatic factors. We observed limited connectivity among small Crotalus species, although some species exhibited greater connectivity than others. Future models suggest potential distribution reductions for all species, with C. armstrongi facing the greatest reduction (78%) according to the cn85 global climate model. Protected areas do not encompass the majority of potential distribution for these small rattlesnake species. These findings highlight the urgency of conservation efforts and the need to mitigate the impacts of future environmental changes on reptile populations.