Predicting the current and future suitable habitats for endemic and endangered Ethiopian wolf using MaxEnt model

Abstract

The Ethiopian wolf, endemic to Ethiopia, is the most endangered species in the world. As flagship species, a wide range of studies has been conducted on the Ethiopian wolf. However, there is scanty information about the impact of climate change on this globally important species. Thus, this study aimed to predict the current and future suitable habitats of the species based on four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of IPCC for the years 2050 and 2070 by using the MaxEnt model. A total of 479 species occurrence records were obtained from the field survey and Global Biodiversity Information Facility. The 19 bioclimatic variables and altitude were downloaded from worldclim and extracted for the study area using GIS software. The Pearson correlation analysis was employed to detect correlation among variables and maintained 10 variables. The prediction potential of the model was evaluated and found excellent to predict the distribution of the species. The result depicted that suitable habitats for Ethiopian wolves will be badly affected by climate change. Currently, about 9.4% of the total landmass of Ethiopia is suitable for wolves. However, it will be lost in the forthcoming couple of decade under all scenarios of global climate change. Consequently, the Ethiopian wolf is highly suspected to be extinct globally in the mid of 21st century, unless corrective measures are done in time. Therefore, enhancing the adaptive capacity of species as well as genetic resource preservation and captive breeding is advisable.