Abstract
In this study, we present a fused multi-scale approach to model habitat suitability index (HSI) maps for three different locust species. The presented methodology was applied for the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus, CIT) in Pavlodar oblast, Northern Kazakhstan, for the Moroccan locust (Dociostaurus maroccanus, DMA) in Turkistan oblast, South Kazakhstan and for the desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) in Awash river basin, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia. The main novelty is based on implementing results from ecological niche modelling (ENM) with time-series analyses of high spatial resolution remote sensing data (Sentinel-2) and further auxiliary datasets in a fused HSI model. Within the ENM important climatic variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) and edaphic variables (e.g. sand and moisture contents) are included at a coarse spatial resolution. The analyses of Sentinel-2 time-series data enables mapping locust breeding habitats based on recent remotely sensed land observation at high spatial resolution and mirror the actual vegetation state, land use, land cover and in this way identify areas with favorable conditions for egg survival and breeding. The fused HSI results for year 2019 were validated based on ground field observation and reach area under curve (AUC) performance of 0.747% for CIT, 0.850% for DMA and 0.801% for desert locust. The innovation of this study is a multi-scale approach which accounts not only for climatic and environmental conditions but also for current vegetation and land management situation. This kind of up-to-date spatial detailed information on breeding suitability could enable area prioritization for risk assessment, monitoring and early intervention of locust pests.
Highlights
Since the beginning of land cultivation locust outbreaks, and plagues have been a danger to the human population worldwide and often brought devastation, hunger and death (Zhang et al, 2019)
We present an approach based on habitat suitability index (HSI) model which takes advantage of different environmental variables, including ecological niche modelling (ENM) results, time-series analyses of satellite data and species-specific knowledge to better discriminate areas providing optimal locust breeding and egg-pod incubation conditions
The goal of this research was to explore whether ecological niche modelling (ENM) and a habitat suitability index (HSI) model can be combined to refine results for actual breeding areas of three different locust pests
Summary
Since the beginning of land cultivation locust outbreaks, and plagues have been a danger to the human population worldwide and often brought devastation, hunger and death (Zhang et al, 2019). Swarms of desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria) endanger food security across East Africa, the Arabic peninsula, India and Pakistan (Meynard et al, 2020). Moroccan locust (Dociostaurus maroccanus, DMA) can cause massive devastation at regional and local scales (Kambulin, 2018; Latchininsky, 1998; Le Gall et al, 2019; Reuters, 2019; Toleubayev et al, 2007). Subsequent droughts and scarcity of plant food force the insects to aggregate, initiating the gregarious phase in which locusts create bands and form highly mobile flying swarms of adult insects (Kimathi et al, 2020; Meynard et al, 2020). Locust population densities or states are commonly distinguished by the definitions of outbreak, plague or pest, decline and recession (Cressman, 2016)
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