Abstract
BackgroundInfections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria are increasingly frequent, burdening healthcare systems worldwide. As pathogens acquire resistance to all known antibiotics – i.e., become pan-resistant – treatment of the associated infections will become exceedingly difficult. We hypothesized that the emergence of pan-resistant bacterial pathogens will result in a sharp increase in human mortality.MethodsWe tested this hypothesis by modeling the impact of a single hypothetical pan-resistant Escherichia coli strain on sepsis deaths in the United States. We used long-term data on sepsis incidence, mortality rates, strain dynamics, and treatment outcomes to parameterize a set of models encompassing a range of plausible future scenarios. All models accounted for historical and projected temporal changes in population size and age distribution.ResultsThe models suggest that sepsis deaths could increase 18- to 46-fold within 5 years of the emergence of a single pan-resistant E. coli strain. This large and rapid change contrasts sharply with the current expectation of gradual change under continuing multidrug-resistance.ConclusionsFailure to prevent the emergence of pan-resistance would have dire consequences for public health.
Published Version
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