Predicting Retention in Three Substance Abuse Treatment Modalities Among Anglo, African American, and Mexican American Juvenile Offenders

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Many of the same factors that predict delinquent behavior also predict adolescent drug use. This study examined factors that predict, and interventions that maximize, substance abuse treatment retention in three modalities among high-risk Anglo, Mexican American, and African American juvenile offenders. The study sample includes youth (N = 211) who were discharged from probation supervision and who received substance abuse services through a CSAT-funded federal demonstration project. The key predictors examined included the stage-of-change (i.e., precontemplation, contemplation, preparation) in which a juvenile fell, various dimensions captured by the Comprehensive Addiction Severity Index for Adolescents, and other intervention status (probation, case management, and mental health treatment). The research questions were addressed using statistical models known as survival analysis that treated time from entry into substance abuse treatment to exit from substance abuse treatment as the outcomes. Among key findings were that females were 73% more likely to leave day treatment relative to males; for each additional family problem ever experienced, Mexican American adolescents were 15% more likely to leave residential treatment compared with African American adolescents; and African American and Mexican American adolescents in the contemplation stage-of-change were 50% less likely to leave day treatment compared with Anglo adolescents. Applications for practice and research with this population are discussed.