Predicting potential climate change impacts of bioenergy from perennial grasses in 2050

Abstract

To adopt the Paris Agreement, perennial grasses become a favorable energy resource. To analyze the contribution of perennial grasses-derived bioenergy to carbon neutrality in 2050, the biomass availability was estimated by land availability and areal biomass yields under different climate change scenarios. The climate change impacts of bioenergy were assessed by integrating biomass regrowth and decomposition, and atmospheric carbon cycle models. Analysis revealed that the global biomass yields would be the highest under SSP4–6.0 (1,683.78–1,922.05 Mt), and the associated bioenergy could satisfy 13.35%–34.15% of the global bioenergy demand. The global climate change impacts were 3.44 (SSP5–8.5)–385.58 (SSP4–6.0) Mt CO2 eq, and the mitigation effect was 19.72–6,716.64 Mt CO2 eq. The production of combined heat and power yielded the highest energy output, and bio-power had the largest mitigation effect by substituting coal-fired power. The improvement in technology and grass yield can significantly enhance the mitigation effect.