Predicting new firm survival and growth: The power of alternative data

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the alternative data of manager turnover can provide investors and policymakers with a more timely and available predictor of new firm performance beyond the traditional financial information. This paper constructs a comprehensive alternative dataset of manager turnover that covers a near-population sample of new firms in the United Kingdom. It shows that manager departures and appointments can predict new firms’ survival and growth, even after controlling for firm financials. In addition to the within-firm prediction, the average manager turnover in other firms of the same industry can cross-predict individual firm performance. The within-firm prediction is more pronounced for non-family firms, smaller firms and firms incorporated during or after the Great Recession, and the cross-firm prediction is stronger for younger firms. This paper sheds light on the power of alternative data in the prediction of firm performance, particularly for new firms that often do not have available information.