Policy uncertainty and land transaction prices in China

Abstract

Economic policy uncertainty has prominent effects on investment and output. Using unique transaction-level data in China, this paper explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty on land transaction premiums in China. On average, a 1% increase in the policy uncertainty level reduces land transaction premiums by 3.907 percentage points. The impact of policy uncertainty is more profound for firms with tighter financial constraints and land located in cities with lower rent-to-price ratios. The influence of policy uncertainty becomes weaker after the anti-corruption campaign in China, especially in provinces scrutinised by the central inspection teams, implying that improvements in the political environment alleviates the impact of policy uncertainty.