Predicting lake water quality index with sensitivity-uncertainty analysis using deep learning algorithms

Abstract

Regular monitoring and assessment of water quality is essential to maintain the quality of lake water. A commonly used method for assessing water quality is the Water Quality Index (WQI). Artificial intelligence (AI) can predict the WQI rapidly and more accurately than conventional methods. In this study, a stacking ensemble model based on Deep Learning (DL) was proposed to predict the WQI by integrating three models: Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Neural Network (NN). The performance of this model was compared with that of Deep Dense Neural Network (DNN) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The inclusion of a DNN model, which was used for the first time in water pollution research to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in predicting WQI, added a new dimension to the workflow. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R2) were used to evaluate the performance of the WQI prediction models. The results showed that the WQI of the water samples ranged from 90.75 to 145.29, indicating poor to very poor water quality. The validation results showed that the stack model was superior to all other models in terms of prediction accuracy, with MSE of 25.77, RMSE of 5.07, MAE of 3.5 and R2 of 0.98. The DNN-based sensitivity analysis showed that pH and turbidity significantly affect the WQI and should be monitored to minimise water pollution. The uncertainty analysis indicated that electrical conductivity and total dissolved solids have the highest uncertainty in predicting WQI. This study provides researchers, decision makers and water scientists with accurate information on water quality and enables the implementation of clean production processes to reduce pollution and improve water quality.