Predicting habitat suitability for Castor fiber reintroduction: MaxEnt vs SWOT-Spatial multicriteria approach

Abstract

Species reintroductions are high-investment ecological interventions that require feasibility studies and careful planning. In this context, Ecological Niche Models are a useful tool to identify habitat suitability, estimate spatiotemporal dynamics and manage reintroductions or conservation initiatives. The present paper proposes an application of Ecological Niche Models to explore potentials of the Italian territory for the reintroduction of the Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber), by identifying suitable areas and estimating the possible population harboured. The MaxEnt model was chosen from several modelling methods working with different statistical algorithms and inputs. MaxEnt was applied to the whole territory of the region of Piedmont and to two focus areas, the Natural Park of “La Mandria” and the Ivrea lakes area. The habitat suitability results were compared with previous research, conducted in 2019 that applied an integrated SWOT-Spatial multicriteria based approach for the construction of a Map of Suitable Areas for beavers reintroduction in Piedmont. The MaxEnt predictive maps show several potential habitats mostly located along main watercourses in foothill and in plain zones. Moreover, habitat distribution is comparable with the SWOT-Spatial Multicriteria Analsysis, although predictive maps could be minimally dependent on the choice of sample points within the map just mentioned. The MaxEnt model and, generally, the Ecological Niche models represent a useful tool to evaluate and select appropriate reintroduction sites and can support the complex problem of localization in reintroduction planning.