Predicting Future Recidivism From Changes in School Grades and Moral Agency

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine whether a change in school grades could serve as a turning point for delinquency, and whether it did so by forming a reciprocal relationship with a change in moral agency. Separate samples of 3,558 (2,829 males, 729 females) and 3,559 (2,811 males, 748 females) low-to-moderate risk justice-involved youth from the same data set served as participants in this study. Cross-lagging school grades and moral agency, while controlling for prior levels of all predictor and outcome variables, two four-variable pathways were tested (grades → moral agency → grades → recidivism; moral agency → grades → moral agency → recidivism). There were significant indirect effects in both pathways across samples, although none of the four direct effects were significant. These findings support the notion that small changes in behavior (grades) and cognition (moral agency) produce a chain reaction capable of predicting desistance from crime.