Individual differences in school conduct, friend delinquency, and moral agency as predictors of recidivism in low-to-moderate-risk youth

Abstract

Turning points can bring about crime deceleration and desistance in several ways. In the present study, improved conduct at school in association with a change in differential associations (friends) served as a putative turning point, while a change in moral agency served as a cognitive mediator, and arrest served as a dichotomous outcome measure in a group of 7117 low-to-moderate-risk justice-involved youth divided into two equally sized samples (mean ages = 15.74 and 15.73, SD = 1.36 and 1.38). Mediation analysis revealed a significant direct effect from good school conduct to low recidivism and significant indirect effects across both samples. One of the significant indirect effects ran from improved school conduct to decreased friend delinquency to increased moral agency to lower recidivism and the other ran from good school conduct to increased moral agency to lower recidivism. Despite potential problems with the generalizability of results and the construct validity of some of the measures, findings from this study suggest that improved school conduct in association with a change in friend differential associations can serve as a turning point or marker for change capable of stimulating a rise in moral agency, which, in turn, may reduce the likelihood of future recidivism.