Predicting Empirical Patterns in Viewing Japanese TV Dramas Using Case-Based Decision Theory

Abstract

This article empirically analyzes consumer behavior of viewing TV dramas using case-based decision theory. The theory addresses an economic situation with structural ignorance, where states of the world are not naturally given nor simply formulated for a decision-maker. Under this theory, consumers make decisions based on subjective evaluations of previous purchases for similar goods. Our empirical analysis is concerned with viewing decisions on getsuku, the Japanese TV dramas broadcast at 9pm Monday by the Fuji Television Network. The regularity of the schedule and the long-sustaining popularity of the program enable us to easily collect consumer data. Then, we conduct a web survey of individual audiences on subjective evaluations of previously watched dramas. For our empirical analysis, we utilize a simple linear model of the case-based model that allows the incorporation of flexible inference techniques. Our results demonstrate better performance of the case-based models than models based on traditional expected utility theory regarding both statistical model selection and one-step-ahead prediction. We also reveal that the successful performance of the case-based model in our analysis depends on the availability of individual subjective evaluations and that it is difficult to replace the individual-specific information using demographic information and aggregate data.