Predicting effects of global warming on growth and mortality of upland oak species in the midwestern United States: a physiologically based dendroecological approach

Abstract

This study combined an ecophysiological model and dendroecological analyses to evaluate potential effects of global warming on the physiology, growth, and mortality of white oak (Quercusalba L.) and black oak (Quercusvelutina Lam.) in the Ohio River region. The model integrated data for ecophysiology of oak species, site attributes, and daily temperature and precipitation to model nonlinear responses of stomatal conductance (gs), net photosynthesis (Pnet), and woody respiration (Rw) to variations in temperature and soil water content. Relationships between modeled physiological response indices and actual white and black oak annual radial growth indices were evaluated by regression analyses, using growth and weather data for the period 1900–1987 for seven upland oak–hickory forests. Modeled physiological response indices explained 40–60% of variation in radial growth indices. To evaluate the effects of global warming, daily temperature values for the period 1900–1987 were increased by 2 or 5 °C, without changing precipitation values, and physiological response indices were computed. Model indices generated in warming simulations were entered into dendroclimatic regression models calibrated under conditions without any warming to predict radial growth under warming scenarios. Under the warming scenarios, OAKWBAL predicted a substantial increase in growing season Rw, but little change in growing season Pnet. Warming merely shifted the period of near-maximal Pnet earlier in the growing season, without changing its duration. However, this result was somewhat dependent upon the ability of leaf-out phenology to track changes in temperature regime. The net effect of increased Rw, with little change in Pnet, was a reduction in radial growth and a higher frequency of years with climatic conditions stressful to oaks on upland sites. A historical association between severe drought and increased incidence of oak growth decline and mortality indicated that global warming could increase the incidence of decline and mortality in oak populations on upland sites similar to those in this study.