Predicting current and future species distribution of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has caused drastic changes in urban ecosystems, resulting in various urgent management needs from mitigating biodiversity loss to preventing human-wildlife conflicts. Using species distribution modeling to understand urban species’ distributional patterns and predict their future changes is thus important to support decision-making. Raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) that previously inhabited Shanghai had been extirpated from the metropolitan area but recently returned to and expanded in almost all districts, causing hundreds of human-raccoon dog conflicts. In this study, we initiated a citizen science project, identified factors associated with raccoon dog habitat selection, and predicted its current suitable habitat as well as potential future ranges under different city development scenarios. By constructing an ensemble modeling using data from camera trap surveys, interviews and rescuing records, we found that raccoon dog distribution was positively associated with several anthropogenic factors including nighttime light, human population, and percentage area of buildings. We predicted a 156,024 ha suitable habitat for raccoon dogs throughout Shanghai, among which only 5,811 ha (3.72 %) was currently occupied. Our results indicated considerable potential of raccoon dogs’ future expansion, which had been consistently ignored in previous management plans. To alleviate the increasing human-raccoon dog conflicts, we found strategies to slow down raccoon dog movement effective tools, and suggest adaptive management to provide fast response and flexible solutions. This is the first study to investigate human-wildlife conflict in China’s urban environment, and our approach has substantial implications for Shanghai as well as other regions where urban species are undergoing rapid expansion.