Abstract
Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.
Highlights
The climate of our planet is changing at an unprecedented rate
Our study demonstrates for the first time the potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat in Nepal Himalaya
The validity of the model for current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus was high with AUC = 0.98 indicating that the selected variables described the distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus very well
Summary
The climate of our planet is changing at an unprecedented rate. Global average temperature has increased by 0.85uC from 1880 to 2012 and it is likely to increase further by a minimum of 0.3uC– 1.7uC (RCP 2.6) to a maximum of 2.6uC–4.8uC (RCP 8.5) by the end of this century relative to 1986–2005 temperature [1]. Ecosystems and species have already responded to global climate change [2]. Composition, and dynamics have been observed at ecosystem levels [3,4] whereas alteration in phenology, modification of physiology, and shifts in distribution have been documented at the level of species [5]. Shifts in plant species distribution may increase vulnerability to extinction [6]. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of species is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses [7]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
